ASEAN Research: Key Investor Debates Likely to Drive Stocks in the Upcoming Year

Topics: Balance of trade, Current account, Stock market Pages: 174 (19836 words) Published: May 13, 2014
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

December 5, 2012

ASEAN

Big Debates: 2013
Key Investor Debates Likely to Drive Stocks in the Upcoming Year

Although ASEAN's growth story remains resilient, global macro conditions keep generating new debates. Our ASEAN research team has thought through the ASEAN outlook in the context of global growth and policy volatility to bring to you the ASEAN Key Debates for 2013.

Indonesia Economics ........................................

6

Indonesia Equity Strategy .................................

8

In this report, we highlight a selection of the key debates that we think will drive the performance of industries and stocks in 2013. We asked our sector teams to identify industry- and company-specific debates that are likely to matter or that are likely to be settled or significantly advanced in the coming 12 months, and on which we have a view that differs from the current market view.

Indonesia Banks................................................. 16

Our job as securities analysts starts with conversations with leading investors. We look to identify which debates matter today, and more importantly, which will matter tomorrow. Through these
conversations, along with an increasing array of analytics, we seek to understand what is currently in the price, and where investment opportunities can be found.

Singapore Equity Strategy ................................ 10 Thailand Equity Strategy ................................... 12 ASEAN Plantations ............................................ 14 Indonesia Telecoms........................................... 18 Singapore Banks................................................ 20 Singapore Industrials ........................................ 22 Singapore Property............................................ 24 Singapore Reits.................................................. 26 Singapore Telecoms .......................................... 28 Asia/Pacific Airlines........................................... 30 Asia/Pacific Shipping......................................... 32 PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC.BK).................. 34

Valuation Methodology...................................... 36

As always, we look forward to your feedback.
Neil Perry
Director of Asia Research

Hozefa Topiwalla
Head of ASEAN Research

Happy 5th Birthday, Risk-Reward Triangle!
And it Works
Find out why, on page 3

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

2013: The Big Debates – ASEAN
December 5, 2012

Table of Contents
3

Global Research: Happy 5th Birthday, Risk-Reward
Triangle! And It Works

22

Juan-Luis Perez, Global Head of Research

6

Indonesia Economics: Are Funding Pressures
Behind Us?

Xin Jin Ling

24

Deyi Tan, Seen Meng Chew

8

Indonesia Equity Strategy: Is There a Secular
Improvement in Indonesia’s BoP?
Singapore Equity Strategy: Will the Dividend Theme
Continue in Singapore?

26

Thailand Equity Strategy: Is the Thailand Market
Over-valued / Over-owned?

28

ASEAN Plantations: Will CPO Prices Recover
Enough to Exceed Consensus 2013 Forecasts?

30

Indonesia Banks: Cyclical or structural problems –
Will a Cyclical Slowdown in the Indonesian...
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